Climate Change Impacts and Mitigation

Regional Climate Projections

It is predicted that New Zealand will be warming during this century. This doesn't surprise me since the Earth isn't getting any colder. New Zealand is expected to experience higher daily temperatures and less extreme cold temperatures. Although the temperatures in South Island of New Zealand will not experience great changes in temperature, it will get noticably hotter. During the winter, South Island will also experience more precipitation (rain, snow etc) and an increase in wind speed. On the topic of wind, New Zealand's winds are influenced by a mixture of the Westerlies and New Zealand's many mountain terrains. Although the general temperature of New Zealand will increase the climate change will depend on Australia Monsoon, typhoons and how strong the mid-latitude westerlies will blow.

New Zealand mountains
Photo from here

All information stated above is from IPCC.




Specific Climate Changes

If traveling to New Zealand is on your bucket list, I suggest you go now. In the next 40 years, it seems like all hell is going to break loose and the beauty of New Zealand will collapse or something. According to IPCC there will be a substantial loss in biodiversity like the Great Barrier Reef and Queensland Wet Tropics (all near Australia),

Queensland Wet Tropics
photo from here

Great Barrier Reef
photo from here

Great Barrier Reef
Photo from here

Earth will weep with these beauties gone. Other damages include New Zealand's agriculture and forestry will start to diminish in the year 2030 because of fire and drought. Another shame because New Zealand is well known for the greenery and mountain ranges.

All information stated above is from IPCC.


Detailed Look at Future Climate

As I mentioned in the paragraph above, New Zealand is expected to experience hotter temperatures resulting in more fires and droughts. It get's worse. Floods and storm surges are expected to be not only violent but more frequent. Because of these rise of disasters, New Zealand does not seem prepared- mostly it's large infrastructures. Things like floods, damage to pipes, fire damages, heat waves etc will cause more deaths and blackouts. Unfortunately the vulnerability depends on how well humans are able to adapt.

All information stated above is from IPCC



Most Interesting Threat

There are four elements that exist on Earth - water, wind, earth and fire. With the expected increase in temperatures, fire and drought would probably be the most interesting threat. Fire can damage many of New Zealand's beauty including it's many forestry, mountain terrains and even agriculture. Many animals roam these terrains including sheep, cows, ox etc. If nature fires and droughts burn grassy terrain it doesn't only harm the grass life but also animals. Animals loose their homes and food.
Say good-bye to the lambs

photo from here

Data and Images

Regional Impact Map
Photo from here

With temperature rising, the South Island will experience more rainfall and the demand for water will increase because of droughts and fires decreasing the water supplies. Floods and typhoons will increase as well because of the warmer waters surrounding the North Island.

Severe Weather in New Zealand

TORNADOES

Tornado hitting Hokitika, New Zealand
Photo from here

Tornado (n) : a violent and destructive storm in which powerful winds move around a central point. (Webster)

Drawing from here

How cliche am I when the first thing that comes to my mind when the word tornado shows up, I think of Dorothy and Toto? Dorothy and Toto's home was situated back in the state of Kansas. In 2009 alone, 100 tornadoes ravaged Kansas (CRH). An average of 1,253 tornadoes hit the United States every year (NCDC) and moves from southwest to northeast. That is a lot compared to the amount New Zealand gets hit with. With an annual average of 7 reported tornadoes in New Zealand (Niwa), tornadoes rarely hit New Zealand.


But how do tornadoes form?

The only way to produce a tornado is if a thunderstorm is present.

                                     

Vortex tube formed
Photo from here

The first step in creating a tornado is when the westerly winds blows and winds from the southeast blows near the surface a rotating body of air is made. This is called a vortex tube. This occurs because as the altitude increases, the speed increases which is known as vertical wind shear.

Updraft lifts tube
Photo from here

This horizontal tube of air is then lifted off the ground from the middle by the thunderstorm's updraft creating an awkward "c" shape at first. Once the horizontal tube becomes a vertical standing tube it is called a mesocyclone.

Wall cloud and tornado formed
Photo from here

Finally the still spinning tube is developed in the updraft of the thunderstorm. In the picture to the right, a wall cloud is formed bellow the thunderstorm cloud which is the black part. Then a funnel cloud is lowered from the wall cloud. As soon as the funnel cloud touches the ground, it is now a tornado.

Global Map of Tornado Occurrences
Photo from here

New Zealand is located on the southern hemisphere. North Island is situated above the 180˚ mark. Then in between the 150E and 180 is the South Island of New Zealand. It's pretty tiny compared to United States and Australia. You may not be able to see it clearly but there are a few red dots (which mean tornadoes) on the land mass. New Zealand is located to the southwest of United States and it's tornado alley.

Photo from here

In the past 30 years, the amount of tornadoes has increased. After contemplating for a couple of minutes and only thinking of global warming; I think the numbers have increased because of global warming. Thunderstorms need a warmer surface temperature to rise and cold sinking air. I guess global warming could cause warmer than normal surface temperature.





Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Ita
Photo from here

The picture above is category 5 Tropical Cyclone Ita, expecting to hit Queensland, Australia on friday 4/11/14. New Zealand is fairly close to Australia. Luckily, New Zealand does not get hit with tropical cyclones (hurricanes) often. It has an average of one cyclone per year (Niwa). United States on the other hand has an average of seven hurricanes per year (AOML).

Hurricane Formation Regions
Photo from here

You probably noticed that I used two terms for the natural disaster - tropical cyclone and hurricane. Countries in the Indian oceans like Australia use the term cyclone. Hurricanes are used in the Atlantic and East pacific Ocean (United Sates). Lastly the term Typhoon are used near the coast of China and Indonesia.

Hurricanes need three ingredients which are 1.) warm ocean waters that are greater that 80˚F, 2.) deep warm ocean water - at least 200 m deep (because if the upper part of the water was warm and the deeper part of the water is cold, it could kill the hurricane), 3.) Coriolis (what makes the hurricane spin) so greater than 5˚ N, S because there is no Coriolis at the equator.

Hurricane Path
Picture from here

From the picture above, hurricanes start off near the north Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico where there are higher chances of warm waters above 80˚F. Then with the push of westerlies and jet streams they travel up towards the U.S. where Florida gets hit often.